The honest map of the three instruments
Anyone comparing "CETES at X% against a private pagaré (promissory note) at 15%" without talking about risk is selling you something. The grown-up comparison has four columns: return, credit risk, liquidity and protection.
CETES: the reference floor
Federal Government debt at 28–364 days: the peso asset with the lowest credit risk in the market. Its rate is set every week at auction —check the current one at Banxico or cetesdirecto; we do not publish a figure here that expires within days—. Taxation: a provisional withholding of 0.90% annual on principal in 2026 (LIF 2026, art. 24), creditable in your annual return against the ISR (income tax) on real interest. High liquidity and accessible amounts. It is the number against which everything else must justify itself.
SOFIPOs: the rate with a (limited) net
People's Financial Companies (Sociedades Financieras Populares) are authorized and supervised (by the CNBV, Mexico's banking regulator) and usually pay above CETES to fund themselves. Their defining feature: the Protection Fund covers up to 25,000 UDIS per person and per entity — around $220,000 at the 2026 UDI value. Translation: up to that amount, your real exposure is similar to a bank's (the IPAB covers banks up to 400,000 UDIS); above it, you are an unsecured creditor of the SOFIPO. The rational play: don't exceed the coverage per institution and review its capitalization indicators.
Private debt: return earned through analysis
Lending directly —to a company, to an individual, through an originating firm— pays more because you take on pure credit risk: no one bails you out. Your "protection fund" is built by hand:
- Real collateral with a coverage margin (ideally 2.5 to 1) — a registered mortgage or pledge;
- Enforceable documentation: a loan agreement with a certain date + pagaré (promissory note);
- Serious origination: verified repayment capacity, a clear purpose;
- Diversification across borrowers and terms.
The illiquidity is real (your money comes back according to the amortization schedule) and the taxes are on you: interest is taxable income, with no automatic withholding between individuals. The premium over CETES is the pay for analysis, collateral and illiquidity — if a "private investment" offers a high rate without showing you collateral or paperwork, it is not private debt: it is a promise.
How to build a sensible ladder
- Liquidity and emergencies: CETES/government funds — the rung that never fails.
- Medium-term surplus: SOFIPOs within the 25,000 UDIS coverage per entity.
- Patient capital: private debt with collateral, in amounts your estate can tolerate and with paperwork a judge would recognize.
And the house warning, always: no one serious guarantees returns. Whoever "guarantees" you 3% a month with no risk is, at best, mistaken — and at worst, taking deposits illegally (we explain this in irregular deposit-taking).